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Summary

Making Good Decisions

Reidar B. Bratvold and Steve Begg

2010

207 pp ;Softcover

ISBN:978-1-55563-258-8

Society of Petroleum Engineers

Making strategic and tactical decision about your company's future - oil and gas field developments, selection drilling locations, initiating seismic and reservoir studies, company acquisitions and R & D investments - is often a complex process with highly uncertain outcomes and consequences. Knowing how to make good decisions is essential whether you are a decision maker or providing information to support decision makers. This book is about how to make good decisions; it is based on commonly accepted best practices and underpinned by sound theory, stemming from the author's mix of industry and academic experience. It will help the reader to think clearly about complex and uncertain decision situations and explain such topics as decision-tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, value of information , and value of flexibility. This book is essential reading for technical professionals and managers alike - you might even find some good tips for making personal decisions!

Contents: Decision making and uncertainty in the exploration and production industry ♦ How to make good decisions ♦ Quantifying uncertainty ♦ Monte Carlo simulation ♦ Structuring and solving decision problems ♦ Creating value from uncertainty ♦ Behavioral challenges in decision making

About the Authors

Reidar B. Bratvold is a Professor of Petroleum Investment and Decision Analysis at the University of Stavanger, Norway. His research interests include decision analysis, representing and solving decision problems in the upstream oil and gas industry, valuation of risky projects, portfolio analysis, and behavioral challenges in decision making. Prior to entering academia, he spent 15 years in the industry in various technical and management roles. Bratvold is an associate editor for SPE Economics & Management and has twice served as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer. He was made a member of the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences for his work in petroleum investment and decision analysis. He holds a PhD in petroleum engineering and an MSc in mathematics, both from Stanford University. Steve H. Begg spent 19 years in the industry in a variety of positions for Landmark, BP Exploration, and BP Research before becoming a Professor in the Australian School of Petroleum, University of Adelaide. His main interest is in asset-and-portfolio-investment decision making under uncertainty, including economic valuation and psychological factors. Begg has been an SPE Distinguished Lecturer (twice), chair of SPE’s Forum Series Coordinating Committee, and a member of the Editorial Review Committee. He is an associate editor for SPE Economics & Management and was instrumental in starting that journal. He holds a BSc in geological geophysics and a PhD in geophysics, both from Reading University, UK.

Table of Contents (PDF)

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